Morning Briefing: Experts reach consensus on RBA cash rate decision

Borrowers hoping for an early Christmas present (ie. interest rate cut) at today’s Reserve Bank meeting are likely to be disappointed... NSW Strata Laws come under fire...

Experts reach consensus on RBA cash rate decision
Borrowers hoping for an early Christmas present in the form of an interest rate cut at today’s board meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia are likely to left disappointed.

According to the December Finder RBA surevy, improving economic conditions will likely see the RBA keep the cash rate at 2%, with all 33 surveyed experts predicting no movement.

While no drop in the cash rate is predicted today, there may be some positive for borrowers, with more than half of the survey’s respondents predicting no upward for the cash rate anytime soon.

“While recent out of cycle rate hikes by 13 lenders came into effect last [month], the official cash rate is expected to stay put for the time being, with almost three in five experts surveyed believing the cash rate will not rise for at least the next 12 months,” Finder consumer advocate Bessie Hassan said.

Fifteen per cent of the survey’s respondents predicted the cash rate will fall next time the RBA board meets in February.

Peter Boehm, from real estate portal onthehouse.com.au said a move by the RBA today would be unlikely as it would reduce the central bank’s options in the future.

"There does not appear to be a pressing need to drop rates further. A steady as she goes approach would appear to be the prudent way to go to close out 2015,” Boehm said.

“The housing market, inflation, unemployment, the Australian dollar’s exchange rate and the economic and business outlook all seem reasonably positive and a further rate reduction would be unlikely to yield much benefit and leave the Reserve Bank very little room to move if, in the unlikely event, it was deemed necessary to reduce rates further next year,” he said.

Boehm’s sentiment echoes an earlier prediction made by Multifocus Properties & Finance chief executive officer Phillipe Brach, who last week said it’s unlikely a rate cut will happen anytime soon.

“Even in February it’s hard to see anything happening. I think we’re going to see a stalemate for a while," Brach said. 

The survey's respondesnts have a differing outlook for Australia's property prices, with 58% predicting prices will rise in 2016, while 29% are predicting prices to fall. 
Thirty-eight per cent of experts predict a decrease in demand for residential property in 2016, while 34% predict an increase in demand.

 
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NSW Strata Laws come under fire
The introduction of new laws covering strata agreements in New South Wales has been described as sloppy, after the release of a report questioning the benefits of some changes. 

In October, the Strata Scheme Management Bill and Strata Scheme Development Bill passed through NSW Parliament containing more than 90 changes to how strata agreements in the state are governed.

Under the changes, only 75% of the owners with in an apartment block need to agree before the entire block can be sold.

Prior to the introduction of the laws, many believed that change would be a positive as it would lead to urban renewal and allow owners to move on from building that have been poorly maintained and do not have the required funds for maintenance.

But according to an article in the Sydney Morning Herald, a recently published report by the University of NSW City Futures Research Centre has raised questions about what benefit the provision easing sale requirements will have.

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“Some doubts also emerged about whether strata renewal would actually deliver desired urban planning outcomes, or simply facilitate unaffordable, high‐end developments or renewed gentrification," the report said.

According to the article in the SMH, the report recommends there should be a tiered voting threshold based on a scheme size and that a minimum of 80% of owners should have to agree before a unit block is sold.

NSW Shadow Minister for Innovation and Better Regulation Peter Primrose told the SMH that the government should have waited for the report, which was partially funded by UrbanGrowth NSW and NSW Fair Trading, before
introducing the laws to parliament.

“You should be making legislation based on best information – it seems really sloppy. I don't know why they didn't wait," Primrose said.

“This is a comprehensive report, it's really good data that should have been taken into account,” he said.

A spokesperson for NSW Minister for Innovation and Better Regulation Victor Dominello defended the 75% requirement and said safeguards had been put in place to protect vulnerable residents.

 
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