Morning Briefing: RBA survey predicts no cash rate change today

Ninety-seven percent of experts surveyed by the RBA expect the cash rate to hold today... Some relief for oversupply concerns as apartment approvals peak...

RBA survey predicts no cash rate change today 
All but one of the 31 economists and experts (97%) in the finder.com.au RBA Survey are predicting the cash rate will hold at 1.75% at today's RBA board meeting.

67% are forecasting a rate drop in August, citing the federal election and Brexit vote as contributing to the RBA’s wait-and-see decision.

Bessie Hassan, money expert at finder.com.au, says while the cash rate is expected to pause for another month, the recent result of the British EU referendum will lead to uncertainty in the Australian economy.

“Over half (52%) of experts and economists in finder.com.au’s RBA Survey expect it to have a negative effect of the Australian economy," said Hassan.

“That said, it may be too early to tell just how we will be affected. The process will take time, with negotiations likely to take more than two years."
 
Some relief for oversupply concerns as apartment approvals peak
Booming construction levels in Australia’s apartment market may be on the brink of entering a down cycle as figures released yesterday suggest approvals for the sector have peaked.

The figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that new residential dwelling fell 5.2% in May, with a 10.3% decline in multi-unit approvals the driving force.

Over the month, detached house approvals increased by a slim margin of 0.2%. Approvals were 9.3% lower than they were in May 2015.

Housing Industry Association (HIA) senior economist Shane Garrett said while multi-unit approvals can be prone to volatile movements, he believes the construction industry should be preparing for consistent falls in approvals.

“Multi-unit approvals tend to bounce around a lot from one month to the next, but it’s been clear for some time that activity on this side of the market has peaked,” Garrett said.