Ottawa housing market dynamics now at the mercy of supply

The market now has less than a month's supply of homes

Ottawa housing market dynamics now at the mercy of supply

Ottawa’s housing supply has reached a record low, according to the market’s real estate industry association.

The number of new residential listings in the region fell by 58% monthly in December, declining to levels 15% lower than the region’s five-year average, the Ottawa Real Estate Board said.

“At less than one month’s supply of units in both the residential and condominium property classes, we are firmly entrenched in a strong seller’s market and will continue to be in this state until our inventory increases to three-four months’ supply for a balanced market to be achieved,” said Debra Wright, 2021 president of the OREB.

“As we have reiterated for the past few years, Ottawa’s housing inventory challenges have been and will continue to place an upward pressure on prices.”

As of the end of 2021, the average year-to-date home sale price in Ottawa was $719,605 for residential-class properties (up 24% annually) and $419,683 for condominium units (up 16%), the OREB said.

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“Buyers are fatigued, parents are focusing on remote learning, interest rate hikes are looming. I don’t expect we will see the first quarter increases as we did in 2021,” said Penny Torontow, 2022 president of the OREB. “Unfortunately for homebuyers, [Ottawa] will sustain itself as a seller’s market for quite some time until our inventory issues are remedied.”

Sales activity in December 2021 declined by 14% annually, although the year-end total grew by 7% to reach 20,302 units. Total sales volume in 2021 was approximately $13.1 billion, compared to $10 billion in 2020, the OREB said.

“This significant increase in sales volume reflects the price acceleration that we have seen over the last year and correlates with average sale price increases for the city,” Wright said.